Read time: 2 minutes
“What if the locum jobs in my specialty dry up?!”
“Things are going well now for contract work, but what if things change?!”
Nothing is 100% certain in this life and definitely not in medicine.
But I know dozens of physicians in various specialties who have taken the leap and not looked back.
So why are my friends and I bullish on the trend for clinical contract work to continue in the near future (next 5-10 years…if not more)?
And why are we bullish on healthcare generally?
Historical demographic dynamics
For a 90 second summary, please check out this video where Peter Zeihan summarizes the labor dynamics at play as the largest generational cohort in the history of civilization ages-out of the labor market (just watch to the 01:30 mark for our purposes unless you want to hear about finance/cryptocurrency):
In case you haven’t considered the implications the basics are: the largest slice of our population will be retired by the end of this decade.
Meaning labor supply will take a huge hit, driving wages up for most industries over time.
Along with retirement, most people over the age of 65 consume/buy significantly less stuff than when they were working.
Most industries will see less demand for their goods/services by the Baby Boomer cohort.
Except in healthcare…
Those 65 and older “consume” a disproportionately high percentage of healthcare , eg, procedures, hospital admissions, etc.
Here’s a link to a pretty graph: https://www.statista.com/statistics/184447/us-population-wit….
Dwindling supply of baby boomer clinicians (docs, nurses, etc.) leading to increased compensation for a given demand for clinicians.
Plus
Increasing demand for healthcare by the “booming” 65 and older cohort leading to increased demand for clinicians and increased compensation once again.
Not convinced?
Check out the AMN Healthcare annual report: “Review of Physician and Advanced Practitioner Recruiting Incentives” (link to the 2023 pdf).
Specifically see points 2 and 3.
“Physician and AP supply and demand trends are being driven by a variety of factors that AMN Healthcare refers to as “The Seven Ps.””
 |
Summary
This is the beginning of at least a decade of increasing demand for healthcare services coupled with a decrease in clinicians.
Both of these forces will allow the majority of specialties and roles in medicine to demand higher total compensation (pay, schedule flexibility, benefits, vacation, etc.).
The clinician shortages in various settings across the country will only get worse given these labor market forces.
You are in the driver’s seat when it comes to finding an ideal work-life balance.
It might not last forever, but there’s no reason to think it will change for at least a decade.
Take advantage while you can.
Whenever you’re ready, here are 2 ways I can help:
1) Let’s talk through what choosing your own path through medicine looks like. Over the phone, confidential, free:
https://calendly.com/tonyvullo/20min
2) Free Guides and Resources to Help You Reclaim Your Time and Autonomy:
